Mayhem in Central Africa

                         

It seems God has taken his leave, away from the Central African Republic. The ceaseless images of unspeakable killings in the news, indeed rarely leaves one indifferent. While the causes are deeper, many analysts take the easy road, framing the crisis as a Christian-Muslim divide. More than one hundred days in office, its usual to take stock of a new Government's progress and future directions.

                            Someone seems---in----charge

While the CAR political landscape remains fluid and difficult to predict, the coming of the new Government in January 2014—the third within a year—appears to have refocused impetus on the transition process which expires in February 2015. Building on the Libreville Political Accord (LPD) agreed to by the major political parties and politico-military groups to end hostilities, key institutions are up and functioning:  Transitional Constitution and National Transition Council.  An inclusive Government of national unity has been formed to implement an agreed roadmap of priorities including security sector reforms that will guide the transition. Already in place too, is a National Electoral Committee to oversee the free and fair elections will cap the transition. 

 In parallel, the international community has put in place specific institutions and processes to support the transition. Recently, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution to transform the current the AU- led International Support Mission in the Central African Republic (MISCA) into a UN multidimensional peacekeeping operation (MINUSCA) as from September15, 2014. Among the Mission’s priorities is reforms of the security sector of the country. There’s increased efforts at coordinating regional and global efforts in support of the transition, too. The regional-led International Contact Group (ICG-CAR), has established a structure to strengthen coordination among partners as well as mobilised increased resources for the transition. A group of influential bilateral and multilateral partners France, US, EU, UN meets regularly to coordinate their actions in wide range of areas including SSR for an effective impact.

                                 Women on top

Added, is the credibility of the new leadership team which has boosted optimism and confidence in the transition. The election of Catherine Samba-Panza on January 23, 2014 as the first female Head State in the sub-region, has been a welcomed development across the country as well as international community. Untarnished by the divisions, self-centeredness and corruption of the CAR politics, her non-partisan credentials have won her friends among the opposition, as well as praises even from some members of the past regimes including the ousted President Bozize. A coalition of key opposition parties have rallied around a platform in support of the transition. In the interest of effectiveness, she has appointed a technocrat as Prime Minister to head a regionally inclusive and goal-oriented government of 20 Ministers, down from the country’s average of thirty-two.

Packed with technocrats, there’s a strong signal from the highest level of Government for a new and inclusive approach to do politics— a radical shift from the CAR’s ‘’winner-takes-all’’ culture.  Six members of the Seleka, the former rebel-led regime and a member from anti-Balaka group, the Christian militia are part of the Government. As a mark departure from the past, there are eight women in the cabinet (40%) holding key portfolios like communication and reconciliation compare to previous governments where women-run ministries never exceeded two marginal portfolios — an average participation rate of (6%). Further, to ensure success, the Central Africa sub-Regional Economic Community, African Union, United Nations as well as influential partners have signalled their willingness to support the transition process by increasing the cost upon political elites motivated to spoil the process. The International Criminal Court has also expressed readiness to investigate war crimes and human rights abuses in the country.

                               Getting worse before better

But more than 100 days in office, the new CAR Government continues to face some major challenges. Legitimacy is a growing bone of contention. The full status of the Libreville Accord remains unclear. There’s disaffection among some opposition parties about the Government’s commitment to the power-sharing agreement, in particular the non-respect of the provision reserves the Prime Minister position from the ranks of the opposition. Some political parties are concerned about the new Government’s priority to prepare a new constitution that will replace the current interim document after the elections. It seems there’s no shared vision of peacebuilding too. Opinions about the sequencing of reconciliation and justice varies within the government and political parties, and among populations and between international community and the Government. 

The pace of implementing the agreed priorities is worryingly slow even though, a revised roadmap is ready for adoption. Very little signs of progress in the delivery of critical public services including security, reconciliation and justice. Many observers, including the UN have expressed concerns about the role and relations of the 20-person presidential advisers team with that of the Cabinet. It is not unlikely that the advisers may act as a sort of shadow cabinet, a potential source of incoherence for the Government. Further, the transitional institutional architecture is incomplete. The High Council for Communication, tasked with protecting liberty of expressions and ensuring equality in access to information for all media establishment is yet to get operational.

Besides a growing perception of insufficient ownership of the peacebuilding agenda, the acute shortage of human and financial resources limits Government’s functions to Bangui alone. The capacity of national stakeholders to organize elections within the transitional time frame will depend on their ability to establish local branches of national elections authority throughout the country, as well as restore security and State authority across the country. All in ways that are going to disarmed the different militias and reinstate the functioning of civil registries.

                                         Power by the gun

At the root of the State’s failure, is a culture of violence and impunity that marks politics in the Central African Republic. Violence rather than elections is the preferred route to power. Out of its six presidents since independence, four arrived at the helm of State by the use of force. The repeated cycles of coups and counter coups have contributed to perennial instability with an average regime survival rate of eight years— compared to the sub-regions’ average of twenty. More disturbingly, the emergence of armed-groups as a decisive instrument of political change, has accelerated with the coming of General Bozize to power in 2003.

A wholesale political, institutional and security breakdown defines the present crisis. Quite unsettling as it’s seems, presents a renewed hope for sustainable state building including security sector reforms.  There’s a shared understanding across the political class and new Government that the country has reached the bottom of destruction. While no clear idea of how to rebuild, there’s growing commitment within the country to move forward as well as increasing awareness from donors that only long-term support to the transition will stand a chance of success.

Existing policy and institutional frameworks could be activated, adapted, renewed or built upon. For example, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper adopted in 2010, makes explicit connection between security and poverty through a pillar on security and governance. And as part of the PRSP process, specific institutions to pilot the reforms of the security sector have been created including, a Sectoral Committee and Permanent Technical Secretariat.

Seizing on emerging opportunities for building peace and reconstructing the state, will depend on the extent to which future threats are addressed. Key among them is the character of the State. It remains unclear whether the State will survive as an entity or in its current centralised form, at best. The mass exodus of Muslim populations from Bangui and other areas opens the country to a de facto partitioning: between the north and west. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimates that almost 90 percent of the Muslim populations living in Bangui have left. Worse of all, there’s a growing secessionist tendency in the northern regions of the country. While the President has reaffirmed her willingness to veto any action towards breaking the country.  All of this, raises uncertainty about the conduct and legitimacy of the upcoming elections which may take place without the participation of a significant percentage of the citizens.