Madagascar: Not Yet At the End of the Tunnel

      
While the country has many unifying threads[1], relations between the state, society and security institutions  are fragile and complex. As a result Madagascar has experienced periodic political and security crises with the latest lasting five years.[2]  Although the conflict in the country does not often erupt into violent confrontations, the underlying causes continue to be a major security threat to the region.In fact, the elections held in 2013 were a major step forward but did little to address the underlying causes of the coup: the lack of civilian democratic control of the security sector.

The roots of conflicts date back to the pre-colonial and colonial periods. While societal cleavages are multiple and complex, tensions between the highland and coastal ethnic groups which existed before colonialization were reinforced and continued in part even after independence from France in 1960. The majority of the coastal populations (known as cotiers who came from a mix Polynesian, African and Arab descents) resented their 19th century subjugation by the Merina plateau kingdom (of polynesian descent)[3]. Colonialization added religion as another layer of division— between Catholics and Protestant and between Malagasy elite and modern French business class.

But post-independence period has introduced an increasingly important source of tension: competitions among elites for control over state and natural resources, too[4].  While the cleavages were suppressed to some degree by subsequent authoritarian rule after independence, however they have surfaced since the coming of democracy to the country in 1990. And often, they have led to political stalemates.

The existence of weak institutions and poor governance in particular security has been a central casual factor in the standoffs. The military has regularly intervened into politics and its backing often establishes who the leader of the country is. For example, the prolonged 2009 crisis, started when a military directorate took power from the former President, Marc Ravalomanana and handed it over to the then Antananarivo Mayor Andry Rajoelina. The army has engaged behind the scenes, too. Following a student and civil servant movement for democracy in 1990-92, the military and retired generals together with civil society forces, negotiated an orderly transfer of power from the then President Ratsiraka to Albert Zafy— who was proclaimed president of the High State Authority in 1992— and later went on to win the presidential elections against Ratsiraka in 1993. And since independence, four different military officers have served as presidents, cumulating a total of 25 years of the military at the helm of state. The military also has members involved in other government posts including a significant number of governors.

While the problems within the security sector have long been recognized, successive Governments have failed to address weaknesses through a comprehensive reform agenda.  Today, as the newly elected government of Hery  Rajaonarimampianina strives to lay a foundation for lasting peace in the country, security remains a growing risks. An ever present danger of a putsch looms as well as runaway insecurity in significant parts of the country in particular armed criminality, large-scale rural banditry and international trafficking networks. The ability of the government to manage these threats is complicated by the weak democratic oversight mechanisms which continue to be undermined by the dictates of a small group of Madagascar’s elite.  

 New Wine in Old Bottles
Since the election of Hery Rajaonarimampianina[6] , Madagascar appears to be making progress. The presidential runner up, Robinson Jean Louis, has not only accepted the outcome but also signaled his willingness to support the new Government[7]. There seems to be a shared feeling among the majority of the political and military class to turn a new leaf. The military leadership has publicly dismissed any possibility of a coup plot.[8] The President has announced his agenda which includes the enhancement of the state authority to fight against corruption, insecurity and poverty and to promote the rule of law, education and health, as well as to establish an enabling environment for domestic and foreign investment. The new non-partisan Prime Minister, Mr. Roger Kolo[9] has recruited figures from the political spectrum into government as a move towards promoting inclusion and reconciliation.  A new 152 seat National Assembly has already convened in February 2014. President Rajaonarimampianina has also taken steps to assert his authority and independence. Although selected by ex-President Rajoelina to contest the 2013 elections, Rajaonarimampianina has taken steps to break away from the influence of his predecessor.[10]  This includes taking actions to distance the presidency from the military—such as disbanding the special intervention unit (FIS) and Homeland Security Division (DST) which were both established by Rajoelina and perceived to be too close to him and the political establishment[11].

The international community has rewarded the return to constitutional order by lifting sanctions. International partners have signaled their willingness to support the country which relies on foreign aid to meet almost 60% of public spending. Key heads of international donors have visited the country in the last months including, European Union, World Bank and African Development Bank. Aid flows to the country could reach $2billion a year. To better support reconstruction efforts, the AU has decided to transform the International Contact Group for Madagascar (ICG-M) into an International Support Group for Madagascar (ISG-M)[12], which will be co-chaired by the AU and Madagascar and will meet at least twice a year. A liaison office of ISG-M will soon be opened in Antananarivo.
  
       Headwinds
Despite the progress, there remain outstanding challenges. The process of national reconciliation appears to have stalled due to the lack of a clear strategy. Even though, the President has publicly thanked Mr Ravolomanana for his support which enabled him to secure a parliamentary majority to appoint the new Prime Minister, the Government remains cautious about the return of the ex-President who continues to be in exile in South Africa.[13]  The AU-led ISG-M, in their recent meeting, observed that ‘’the conditions allowing Madagascar's former president Marc Ravalomanana to come back were not yet met.’’ This threatens to undermine the amnesty guaranteed in the Transitional Roadmap and may exclude the ex-President’s supporters from participating in the process of national reconciliation[14]. The scope of reconciliation and the status of the National Reconciliation Commission also remain unclear.

In addition, there is a growing problem of insecurity.  Weak security institutions and the near absence of state authority in significant parts of the country have contributed to increase incidences of banditry, cattle rustling and international trafficking of wildlife and natural resources in the country. Although accurate figures on the cattle rustling (Dahalo) phenomenon are scarce, one estimate puts it at around 160 attacks every two months, principally in the lawless south[15]. The Dahalos appear to be well organized and armed posing one of the greatest challenges to security.   Over 3,668 cases were reported in 2006, with only a few numbers of them successfully prosecuted[16].  Against a spike in criminality, the lack of tangible results of Government’s efforts has dissipated confidence from the population in security institutions.

Closing historical social cleavages is an even greater challenge to peace and security. Extreme poverty is growing and inequality is gapping, both trends are behind the structural violence in the country. According to the World Bank about 75.3% of population survives on a dollar or less a day; the top 10% of population consumes 41 % of the national wealth that is 16 fold that of the bottom 10%. Madagascar’s poor are not only deprived but are also at the receiving end of dysfunctional institutions. Performance has alarmingly deteriorated on all indicators of human wellbeing: health, education and sanitation. Corruption, heavy-handedness of security institutions, lack of access to justice services together increases risks of the country remaining trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty and conflicts. Most importantly, absence of poverty-reducing growth means the ‘’national cake’’ is expanding too slowly to reach the millions of poor people in rural areas. It remains unclear how the Government’s austerity program will affect the much needed investment in capacity building planned for the security sector.
        
                 Beyond the dark clouds

While the challenges seem daunting, opportunities are emerging for transforming security institutions as well as ensuring stability and prosperity.   There appears to be a growing appetite for reforming the security sector. The new Minister of Defense has recently expressed the need for broad reforms[17]. The defense strategy of the country is under review. The new President has expressed the need to expand the focus of the armed forces to not only include internal security but to external security which has been much neglected. For example, while Madagascar has an extensive coastline of about 500km, the navy comprises of only 1% of armed forces. The new Government has also proposed new institutions for strengthening accountability of the security sector: High Court of Justice, High Council on Defense, Higher Council on Defense, National Commission on Insecurity to assess the role of local communities in preventing crimes. Important initiatives have been launched too.  The new ‘’Operation Coup D’Arret’’ which aims to fight against Dahalos, is one of the key ongoing actions in the security sector. A decentralization law is undergoing drafting for submission to the Parliament, by end of the year.

Successfully seizing the emerging opportunities to reform the security sector will depend in part on addressing some of the key threats to peace and stability. While elections have enabled the restoration of constitutional order, on their own, they have barely scratched the surface of the causes of the coup. The growing chasm between the President and his predecessor remains a potential destabilizer. With ex-President Rajoelina appointees still handling some top positions in the military including regional governors, a coup or mutiny remains possible. The circulation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) also remains a major fuel for the runaway criminality. The stability of the coalition and party politics may complicate or even push the country into another political impasse.

In general the political and security situation is increasingly getting better, but more support is needed from international partners.




[1] The over 20 million population share a common Malagasy language, cultural beliefs including reverance for traditions as well as respect for authority.
[2] The latest crisis which started in 2009 has been the longest since the coming of democracy and multiparty politics in 1990. The crisis of 2001 that led to the first suspension of the country from the AU lasted only for 14 months.
[3] After independence, electoral competition tended to follow regional lines, with Merina and Cotiers voting differently.
[4] The recent crisis involving ex-presidents Marc Ravalonomanana and Andry Rajoelina both from the same Merina region, underscores the significant role of elites and personalities politics in creating or sustaining conflicts.
[5] Two failed coup attempt have occurred since the army brought Rajoelina to power in 2009. And in between 1974-2012, there have been at least eight failed coup attempt in the country: 1974, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1992, 2006, and 2012.
[6] Mr Rajaonarimampianina shares the same native origin --highland region—as his two immediate predecessors.
[7] BBC News,  Dr Robinson Jean Louis , ‘’this time, the opposition will be able to advise the state  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13861845

[8] L'Express de Madagar, General Lucien Rakotoarimasy - « Un coup d'état est impossible » http://fr.allafrica.com/stories/201402281302.html
[9] Mr Kolo Roger, is a native from the Coastal region, crucial in providing a regional balance to the government which already included a  President and head of the National Assembly both coming from the highland region.
[10] After a political accord for the elections banned ex-Presidents Rajoelina and Ravolomanana from contesting the 2013 Presidential elections, both of them were forced to appoint new candidates to replace them.
[13] Ex-President Ravolomanana presently living on exile in South Africa is charged with committing war crimes by ordering the killing armless protestor during the incident that provoked the 2009 coup. The South African authority has seized his passport, but it is not clear whether if he returns back to Madagascar he won’t be prosecuted.
[14] A segment of Ravolomanana’s supporters have even threatened to withdraw their parliamentary support for the Government, which may lead to its paralysis.
[17] ‘’La défense n’est pas une affaire purement militaire. Cela relève de nous tous. Il revient à chacun de prendre sa part. En fait, c’est nous qui ne savons pas où aller’’ excerpt of an interview granted by the Minister of Defense http://www.lexpressmada.com/blog/actualites/general-dominique-rakotozafy-il-faut-ramener-les-militaires-dans-les-casernes-13760  

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